How a Take becomes evidence.
Inventory, transcript validation, extraction, review, and outcome scoring are separate layers. Future results enter only after the Take ledger is fixed.
Evidence boundary
- Corpus. 947 episodes from 2021–2026 YTD; 869 have validated transcript pairs.
- Extraction. Candidate claims were extracted without future outcome data.
- Approval. WP6 approved 67 records in two supported families. Speaker attribution is unknown.
- Scoring. Versioned rules attach nflverse outcomes for completed 2021–2025 seasons. Scores bind exact Take, rule, candidate, transcript, and outcome hashes. No 2026 YTD accuracy result is published.
- Audit. Agent preflight is complete. Human approval of the 25-record preseason sample is still required.
Spotify transcript coverage is era-dependent. Local Whisper fallback filled approved gaps, and occasional ASR name errors were corrected through the reviewed entity-override layer without changing raw sources. No transcript supplies speaker labels.
preseason conviction
preseason-conviction-v2
Sample n=55; eligible n=49; excluded n=6. Categories: aligned 21, availability limited 6, contradicted 13, mixed 15.
Baseline: market adp (unavailable). Outcome dataset: nflverse-active-games-2021-2025-v2; formula: ppr-v1.
Uncertainty: wilson_95, estimate 43%, interval 30–57%.
trade
buy-sell-v2
Sample n=12; eligible n=5; excluded n=7. Categories: improved 2, inconclusive 3, unscored 7.
Baseline: self prior four active games (available_for_complete_windows). Outcome dataset: nflverse-active-games-2021-2025-v2; formula: ppr-v1.
No trade accuracy estimate or interval is published; the 12-record family remains descriptive.
What is not claimed
- No blended overall accuracy score.
- No market-outperformance claim without a verified historical baseline.
- No trade accuracy claim from a 12-record family.
- No host-level attribution while speakers remain unknown.
- No inference from missing transcripts.
Outcome sources are nflverse schedule, weekly roster, and player-stat release files, each bound by URL and SHA-256 in release r1-2021-2025-v2.
Excluded families and corrections
Weekly lineup, waiver, and directional prediction failed their WP5 family gates. They receive no release records or outcome charts. A correction creates a new immutable scoring and presentation release; it does not rewrite approved v2 records.